Tungsten and molybdenum market

Tungsten market on May 18, 2023

The tungsten price is temporarily stable, and market participants are cautiously watching the fundamental situation. Although there is some cash-out sentiment in the raw material end, the overall willingness to make price is not high, and the state of downstream users cautiously receiving goods on demand continues, and there is no clear positive news guidance in the demand end. Tungsten product prices in the short term to maintain the basic weak stable operation, the market trading caution, deal to negotiate more price.

Tungsten concentrate offers maintain the high of 121,000 yuan/ton, spot transaction stalemate, short-term market cautious consolidation sentiment is mainly, the supply of mine resources is not easy, downstream users approach activity is not high, the market stalemate is mainly.

APT offers are stuck at the 180,000 yuan/ton mark, merchants’ game mentality has no obvious fluctuation, generally follow the market to maintain stability, downstream users are less willing to take orders at high levels, market transaction performance is under pressure, cautious to avoid upside down risk.

Tungsten powder price stalemate at 276 yuan/kg or so, the focus of the trade negotiation price is relatively loose, mainly affected by the industrial chain upstream and downstream diverging mentality, market stalemate, new orders are not much, some businesses to seek shipping, but consumption to good feedback limited.

Macroscopically, the recovery trend of domestic market consumption slowed down in April. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the total retail sales of consumer goods in April increased by 18.4% year on year, the growth rate was 7.8 percentage points higher than that in March. The industrial added value above designated size increased by 5.6% year on year, 1.7 percentage points higher than that in March. The data showed that domestic consumption and industrial growth continued to pick up from the low base caused by the impact of the epidemic in the same period last year, but the recovery rate was not as high as market expectations.

Molybdenum market on May 18, 2023

The overall center of gravity of domestic molybdenum price has not changed significantly, mainly due to the relative balance of supply and demand relationship and no significant good news release in the market. In this situation, buyers and sellers mainly wait and see, waiting for a new round of steel guidance.

From the supply side, the market spot inventory growth rate is not very fast, the main reasons are: downstream users basically maintain the demand for procurement; Due to the high international molybdenum price and the depreciation of RMB (US $1 = 7.00 RMB) and other factors, domestic molybdenum raw material imports are limited. Due to the sharp rise in the price of molybdenum products in the early stage, many suppliers’ awareness of profit has also increased, which is also one of the factors leading to the slow growth of spot inventory in the market recently. From the demand side, the price of stainless steel continues to fall, increase the cost of stainless steel factory facing the upside down risk, to a large extent affected the demand for ferro molybdenum.

News: Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that from January to April in 2023, the country produced 354 million tons of crude steel, a cumulative daily output of 2,953,300 tons, a year-on-year growth of 4.10%; Production of pig iron 298 million tons, the cumulative daily production of 2,480,300 tons, a year-on-year growth of 5.80%; Steel production of 446 million tons, a year-on-year growth of 5.20%, a cumulative daily production of 3,719,700 tons. In April, the production of crude steel was 92.64 million tons, down 1.50% year on year; The production of pig iron reached 77.84 million tons, up by 1.00% year on year; Steel production was 119.95 million tons, up 5.00% year on year.

Rare earth market on May 18, 2023

The overall center of gravity of domestic rare earth prices is still slightly upward, mainly due to the just-needed replenishment of downstream users, the strengthening of production cost support and the slower release of production capacity of some rare earth manufacturers. In addition, the depreciation of the RMB (1 US dollar is equal to 7.00 RMB), the strengthening of the purchasing power of the US dollar, the increase of the export volume of rare earth and the increase of the import volume of rare earth, is also an important source of energy for the current rare earth owners to raise the price of the tentative.

It is worth mentioning that due to factors such as immature production technology and pressure on environmental protection, the United States is unable to meet its domestic demand for rare earth, and most of it relies on imports, mainly from China. China is the world’s largest rare-earth reserve, producer and exporter, supplying about 90% of the world’s rare-earth products each year.

However, due to the bearish factors in the rare earth market, such as slow downstream demand and relatively loose spot supply, participants should mainly wait and see cautiously, and the market may continue to maintain a volatile uptrend in the short term.

On the morning of May 17, the offshore yuan fell below the “7” mark against the US dollar for the first time this year. In this regard, Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Orient Jincheng, believes that it is mainly affected by the following aspects: First, in the May interest rate meeting of the Federal Reserve, the Federal Reserve said that the possibility of interest rate cut is very small, which led to the recent rebound of the dollar index; Second, under the comparison effect, RMB will depreciate to a certain extent against the US dollar. Third, since the beginning of the year, the domestic settlement exchange rate is generally low and the selling exchange rate is high. In addition, the financial market department of Everbright Bank macro researcher said that the recent release of economic data than expected, the pace of domestic demand recovery short-term fluctuations, triggered the market on monetary policy easing expectations, is also one of the reasons for the recent decline of the RMB exchange rate against the dollar.

News: Jiangxi Provincial Development and Reform Commission said that in April 2023 the province listed in the monitoring directory of industrial production means of steel prices to fall, rare earth and tungsten concentrate prices fell, cement prices fell slightly, sand and stone prices stable; Agricultural production means of fertilizer prices fell, feed prices to fall mainly. In April, the average selling price of high yttrium oxide (rare earth) and middle yttrium europium (rare earth) per ton in Ganzhou was 270,000 yuan and 215,000 yuan respectively, down 3.57% and 12.24% month on month and 35.71% and 40.28% year on year respectively. The average selling price of Ganzhou tungsten concentrate per ton was 114,000 yuan, down 3.39% month-on-month and 4.20% year-on-year.

Cobalt lithium nickel market on May 18, 2023

Cobalt prices temporarily stable finishing, the market supply and demand fundamentals continue to pressure, the overall transaction situation is flat, the market at the bottom of the attempt to repair. According to Deppon Securities, the consumer electronics business will be depressed in 2022 due to the impact of the global economic slowdown, the repeated weakening of consumer demand due to the pandemic, and the increasing pressure on the market inventory as manufacturers run out of core stocks. Looking ahead to this year, consumer electronics performance is expected to bottom out as inventories clear and demand improves.

Lithium prices continue to rise, mainly due to the electric vehicle market consumption is expected to recover, as well as the market rebound after the initial negative market will strengthen. Tianqi Lithium has recently expressed confidence in the long-term development of the new energy industry. Despite the risk of periodic price fluctuation of lithium price, the high growth expectation and related policy inclination of the downstream terminal, especially the new energy automobile and ship as well as the energy storage industry in the future, are objective and reasonably anticipated. In the future, we will strive to reach about 300,000 tons of lithium chemical products equivalent to lithium carbonate by 2027, and further play the synergistic effect of the industrial chain.

Nickel price overall weak finishing, on the one hand is due to the continued expansion of raw material capacity, but the demand performance is relatively general, on the other hand is due to the downstream stainless steel inventory expected market trend pressure. The International Nickel Study Group predicts that global consumption of primary nickel will increase by 6% to 3.134 million tons in 2023. Output will rise 10.25 percent to 3.374 million tons; The general surplus in the global primary nickel market will increase from 105,000 tonnes to 239,000 tonnes in 2022.